Spatiotemporal Heterogeneity and Drivers of Habitat Quality with Land-Use Simulation and Projection in Jiangsu Province, China Based on intPLUS–InVEST and GeoDetector

Rapid urbanization has heightened concerns over ecological degradation. This study analyzes spatiotemporal dynamics of land use in Jiangsu Province from 2000 to 2020 and integrates the intPLUS model to simulate and project land-use patterns for 2030–2050. Habitat quality was assessed with the InVEST model, and key driving factors were identified using the GeoDetector method. The results show that (1) from 2000 to 2020, cultivated land, forest, and grassland decreased markedly by 10.50%, 4.38%, and 35.55%, respectively, whereas built-up land and water bodies increased by 46.70% and 8.92%. (2) Projections for 2030–2050 indicate that land-use change will generally follow the 2000–2020 trajectory but with reduced land-use intensity, a slower expansion of built-up land, and relatively minor changes in ecological land. (3) Habitat quality declined overall during 2000–2020: areas of high habitat quality decreased by 1024.29 km2, while low-quality areas increased by 6386.78 km2. Spatially, habitat quality exhibited a pattern of “higher in the central region and lower in the south and north,” with relatively low values in southern and northern Jiangsu and higher values in central Jiangsu. By 2050, habitat quality is expected to improve gradually. (4) Nighttime light intensity and elevation exerted strong effects on habitat quality changes, with vegetation cover identified as the dominant driver. Among factor interactions, the interaction between nighttime light intensity and elevation showed the greatest explanatory power.