Life Cycle Participation in Urban Regeneration: A Policy Design–Implementation–Evaluation Assessment of Guangzhou

Public participation in Global South urban regeneration often exhibits a “high-commitment—low-conversion” gap between institutional intent and effective citizen influence. Taking Guangzhou, China, as a case, this study develops a Policy design–Implementation–Evaluation (P–I–E) framework to examine participation across the policy life cycle. We review 48 municipal policy documents (2009–2024) to code 34 participation elements, link them to implementation rates of 798 projects across 11 districts, and triangulate outcomes using a survey of 1000 residents. By operationalizing Arnstein’s ladder into an index and introducing an expert-scored Design Completeness (DC) measure, we identify a participation gradient in which refined, enforceable provisions cluster in ex post compliance, while early-stage agenda-setting remains weak. The persistent conversion gap is explained by contrasting governance mechanisms: procedural participation is administratively legible and low-cost to implement, whereas empowerment requires enforceable decision interfaces, multi-actor coordination, and closed-loop accountability. Empirically, symbolic instruments achieve high implementation, while power-sharing elements are rarely enacted; substantive co-creation bundled with early empowerment and feedback mechanisms is associated with higher resident satisfaction and greater uptake of citizen input. Strengthening legally binding decision interfaces and accountability infrastructures is therefore critical for advancing substantive participation.