Cost efficiency in clean urban mobility: TCO breakdown of hydrogen and electric buses in the European Union with projections for 2030 and 2050

The decarbonization of urban public transport is a key objective of European climate and energy policies, driving the adoption of alternative propulsion technologies for city buses. Battery-electric and hydrogen-based powertrains are among the most promising solutions for greenhouse gases abatement, however, even economic competitiveness, which depends on technology evolution, energy costs, and vehicle design characteristics, must be evaluated. This paper presents a Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) analysis of urban buses equipped with four different propulsion systems: battery electric, and three hydrogen-based concepts. The analysis is performed for the whole European market under three temporal scenarios: 2024, 2030, and 2050. Key factors such as vehicle mass and the number of major component replacements over the vehicle lifetime are explicitly considered. The results indicate that the most cost-effective powertrain varies across scenarios, demonstrating that no single technology is universally optimal, emphasizing the importance of scenario-dependent evaluations for strategic planning. • Comprehensive TCO analysis of hydrogen vs electric buses in the EU. • Comparison of TCO results with CO 2 emissions via LCA approach. • Techno-economic modelling combined with forward-looking scenarios. • The optimal configuration strongly depends on the considered scenario. • Hydrogen vehicles overall represent the most competitive solution in 2050.