A Clinical Prediction Model for Bacterial Coinfection in Children with Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infection: A Development and Validation Study

Objectives: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a leading cause of hospitalization for acute lower respiratory tract infections (ALRIs) in children, with bacterial coinfection complicating diagnosis and often driving antibiotic overuse. This study aimed to develop and validate a clinical prediction model using common laboratory biomarkers to enable early, accurate identification of clinically significant bacterial coinfection in children with RSV infection. Methods: A single-center, retrospective cohort study was conducted at Fujian Children's Hospital, enrolling 518 hospitalized children with RSV infection, which was confirmed via targeted next-generation sequencing (tNGS). Patients were randomly divided into a training set (n = 363) and a test set (n = 155) at a 7:3 ratio. The primary outcome, bacterial coinfection, was defined by a composite reference standard integrating etiological evidence from tNGS with clinical, inflammatory, and imaging data, and adjudicated by a blinded expert panel. LASSO regression identified independent predictors, followed by multivariable logistic regression modeling. Model performance was assessed via discrimination (AUC), calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow test), and clinical utility (Decision Curve Analysis) in both sets. Results: Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), C-reactive protein (CRP), and serum amyloid A (SAA) were selected as predictors. The model achieved an AUC of 0.832 (95% CI: 0.788-0.875) in the training set and 0.811 (95% CI: 0.737-0.885) in the test set, with well-calibrated predictions (p > 0.05). Decision curve analysis demonstrated net clinical benefit across 10-80% threshold probabilities. A nomogram was developed for practical application. Conclusions: This study established a model integrating NLR, CRP, and SAA. It offers a reliable tool for the early detection of bacterial coinfection in RSV-infected children, enabling targeted antibiotic stewardship and improving clinical outcomes.