Disentangling Internal Variability and Forced Response in Global Land Monsoon Projection Uncertainty: Insights from Multi-Model Large Ensembles

Key Points

• Monsoon projection uncertainty arises from both internal variability and forced responses, complicating climate forecasts.
• Models exhibit noticeable variability, with some predicting significantly different outcomes from others.
• Assessment using multiple climate models highlights the importance of ensemble approaches in understanding projections.
• Future predictions may improve with better representation of variability and response mechanisms in global land monsoon models.