Distinguishing energy efficiency from substandard IEQ in Cairo’s public administrative buildings: Audit-informed modelling and calibration of two cases

As Egypt relocates its government headquarters to the New Administrative Capital, nearly 50 existing public administrative buildings in Cairo await renovation and adaptive reuse. This offers a substantial opportunity for improving the performance of existing buildings, as retrofit measures could be integrated into the upcoming interventions. However, the existing literature was found to be insufficient at informing decision-makers with validated estimates of the baseline operational performance, casting major uncertainties about the retrofit outcomes that could be yielded. Following a stock analysis conducted in a previous study, where lower-than-expected metered energy use was identified, further building-level investigations of the operational performance were advised to better understand this observed phenomenon. This study uses observations from building audits and modelling to establish an understanding of the operational performance in two case studies, following a calibration approach that was developed to minimise model uncertainties about energy end-uses in cooling-dominated data-poor environments. The findings indicate that low metered energy could be attributed to under-serviced indoor environments, with significant post-retrofit energy rebounds expected, reaching up to 295 % and 45 %, due to comfort-taking and following potential changes in building activity aligned with adaptive reuse plans. With energy rebounds expected to diminish the retrofit savings that could be achieved, the study discusses the implications for policy and decision-making in contexts where retrofit could be financially infeasible, yet required for health and wellbeing benefits, calling for alternative business models that can be more effective at incentivising retrofit uptake in similar contexts. • Shows that low energy use in Cairo’s public buildings reflects under-serviced indoor environments, not genuine efficiency. • Presents an audit-informed, uncertainty-aware calibration framework for cooling-dominated, data-poor buildings. • Identifies major baseline energy rebounds (up to 295 % and 45 %) when IEQ improves and buildings are reused as offices. • Introduces an adjusted-baseline approach to separate true retrofit savings from IEQ and activity-driven changes. • Calls for retrofit assessment beyond energy payback, integrating health, wellbeing, and infrastructure co-benefits.