Bridging Technology and Diplomacy: The Role of AI in Managing Water Scarcity in the Mesopotamian Region

The Second Mesopotamian Water Forum, convened in Diyarbakir, Turkey on 17–19 October 2025, brought together experts, civil society actors, policymakers, researchers, and community representatives from different Mesopotamian countries to engage in multifaceted discussions on transboundary water diplomacy, ecological change, and the future of shared water resources in the Tigris–Euphrates basin. Across the sessions, participants expressed strong concern regarding the politicization and securitization of water resources, emphasizing that water must not be used as a weapon because water is inherently tied to life itself. There was a recurring warning that future global conflicts, possibly even a third world war, could emerge around water resources, underscoring the critical importance of safeguarding and managing water as a shared lifeline for the region. Participants emphasized that high levels of evaporation across the Mesopotamian river systems represent an often overlooked yet significant loss of water. The issue of evaporation was described as a forgotten factor in regional discussions, despite its major impact on water availability for downstream communities. Regional conditions were also examined in depth, particularly in Iran, where severe water scarcity, uneven distribution, and a population of over 88 million people have exacerbated hydro-stress (Bayat-afshary et al. 2025). Discussions highlighted that intensive groundwater pumping in past decades has led to subsidence and groundwater depletion in Iran, while periodic flash floods have caused major destruction of infrastructure. The 2019 flood, which inflicted an estimated US8. 3 billion in damage and affected millions of people, was mentioned as a stark reminder of the vulnerability of infrastructure and communities across the region (Golian et al. 2021). Water scarcity was linked directly to food security, with several speakers noting that Iraq depends on the Tigris and Euphrates rivers for 86% of its water need (Al-Dabbas 2024). Participants reminded the forum that early societies in Mesopotamia managed water systems with notable wisdom and efficiency, yet the twentieth century brought increasing water challenges due to climate change, population growth, and the construction of upstream dams. There were repeated concerns that some upstream countries use water as an economic tool, and several speakers warned that the Tigris and Euphrates may become even more strategically important than oil in the future, increasing the risk of domestic conflict, rising food insecurity, and wider ecological destabilization. Environmental deterioration in the basin was discussed extensively. Participants noted that soil salinity is increasing, fish mortality is rising due to ecological degradation, riverbeds are becoming smoother, and untreated discharges have severely reduced water quality. There was broad agreement that the flow balance of the Tigris and Euphrates must be protected and that continuous water quality monitoring is essential. The involvement of local farmers in decision-making processes was described as critical, and participants emphasized that raising broader social awareness regarding water quality and conservation is fundamental to long-term sustainability. Governance challenges were also a central theme. Participants argued that without effective diplomacy, conflict is inevitable. Examples from Pakistan–India and Pakistan–Afghanistan disputes were cited to demonstrate how the absence of cooperative frameworks exacerbates regional tensions. Many participants asserted that Iraq has experienced water scarcity partly due to regional political decisions and policies. It was noted that Iraq's effort to introduce its wetlands to international organizations represents an important step toward securing global recognition and support for preserving these ecosystems. During the discussions, a Turkish expert presented a metaphor, explaining that many people attempt to climb a mountain, but only those who reach the summit succeed. This was used to emphasize that downstream countries should focus on strengthening internal water management systems rather than solely attributing water shortages to upstream practices. Participants agreed that historical water agreements in the region are outdated and must be updated to reflect contemporary environmental conditions. Mining was identified as a source of pollution; although it cannot be halted due to its economic importance, environmental impact assessments and prefeasibility studies were described as essential to mitigate negative effects. One participant posed a critical question: if water itself does not recognize borders, how have political boundaries been allowed to divide and control shared water resources? In the face of increasing water scarcity, pollution, and the impacts of climate change, the future of shared water resources in regions like Mesopotamia, home to the Tigris and Euphrates rivers, has become uncertain. Traditional water management practices have often focused on local solutions, but a shift to a more global, technology-driven approach is essential (Abdulwahid and Jawad 2025). Artificial Intelligence (AI) and machine learning offer a powerful tool for enhancing water management (Biazar et al. 2025), particularly in the context of water diplomacy between riparian countries. The Mesopotamian region, known as the cradle of civilization, has a long history of advanced water management practices (Lorenz and Erickson 2023). Today, however, the Tigris and Euphrates face severe challenges such as water scarcity, pollution, and climate change (Abdulwahid and Jawad 2025; AL-Hudaib et al. 2025). AI can transform water management by providing accurate predictions about river flow (Gacu et al. 2025), rainfall (Sham et al. 2025), and evaporation rates (Novotná et al. 2025). Globally, 70% of freshwater is used for agriculture, while this range is over 80% in Iraq (UNICEF 2021). AI-powered sensors and advanced irrigation systems could decrease water consumption by up to 50% and improve productivity by 20%–30%, promoting sustainable use (Oğuztürk 2025). Water diplomacy plays a crucial role in resolving conflicts between riparian countries (Rodrigues et al. 2025). Relying on these sources, I highlighted that AI could bridge the communication gap by providing reliable, transparent data that all parties can use to assess water availability and predict future demand. This data can enhance negotiations by offering projections based on climate models, population growth, and agricultural needs, fostering constructive, data-driven decisions. Within these broader discussions, I contributed a specialized perspective grounded in scientific analysis. Drawing upon expertise in water policy and water security research, I stressed the potential of AI and machine learning as modern tools for water diplomacy. I explained that predictive modeling of future water availability, rainfall distribution, and river flow conditions in the Tigris–Euphrates basin could significantly improve the capacity of countries such as Turkey and Iraq to negotiate transboundary water management based on objective data, mutual understanding, and forward-looking assessments. This contribution emphasized the need for innovative and science-based approaches to regional water diplomacy. The final day of the forum focused on consolidating recommendations and outlining possible pathways toward regional cooperation. Discussions centered on the need to shift from tension to collaboration, adopting watershed-based dialogue and inclusive communication approaches. It was stressed that the language used to discuss water issues should foster understanding and collective action. Participants called for respect for the rights of rivers and advocated for the development of small-scale irrigation techniques, especially in regions surrounding the Euphrates River. Public participation in ecological conservation was seen as indispensable, and participants repeatedly emphasized that women should have meaningful roles in water governance and policy formulation. The importance of local community involvement in water management decisions was underscored, along with the need for transparency and shared decision-making between NGOs, local communities, academicians, and civil society organizations. Participants highlighted the principle that those living in Mesopotamia should share both the benefits and burdens of water equally, even in periods of scarcity. There were calls to reinforce social–ecological sustainability through joint projects among riparian states, protect Iraq's marshlands as world heritage sites, and expand cross-border networks. Many speakers expressed that immediate action is necessary and that the region cannot afford to wait until a future forum to address escalating water challenges. Some argued that dam construction should cease in order to prevent further ecological degradation, while others contended that dams are essential for population growth and urban development. Despite the breadth of topics discussed, participants noted that the forum did not adequately address water pollution or contamination. Concerns about forced migration driven by water scarcity were raised, along with repeated calls to establish coordination committees and governance councils to manage water collaboratively. Participants stressed the importance of building international networks to support cooperation when direct meetings between states are not possible. Digital communication platforms were proposed to facilitate continuous dialogue among experts, institutions, and stakeholders. The need for structured working groups, stronger engagement with international law, and the establishment of judicial agreements related to transboundary water issues was emphasized. Speakers advocated for support of global legal frameworks aimed at preventing ecocide. Webinars and knowledge-sharing initiatives were proposed as methods to facilitate regional learning and exchange. Women's involvement in water diplomacy was widely recognized, with emphasis placed on eco-feminism and the inclusion of underrepresented groups. Participants discussed creating a women's diplomacy group specifically for the Mesopotamian region or a broader Middle Eastern and Asian context and highlighted that women must be made more visible in technical and diplomatic spaces. Humanitarian concerns were a strong focal point, particularly regarding access to water for Al-Hasakah in Syria. Participants stressed the urgency of organizing a delegation to visit the Alouk water pump station to assess challenges on the ground in Ras al-Ain (Serekaniye) which is a city in al-Hasakah Governorate in northeastern Syria, on the Syria–Turkey border. They suggested that such a delegation should consist of engineers, civil society members, and local authorities, rather than large international organizations, and that political approval is necessary to ensure safe access. If access is denied, participants stated that awareness-raising efforts must intensify. The Alouk station was described as a tool of war that should be demilitarized immediately. The need for community-organized demonstrations, public awareness campaigns, and coordinated media engagement was emphasized in order to elevate the issue as a human rights matter. Towards the end of the forum, I made another critical contribution, emphasizing that the event lacked sufficient participation from specialized water and climate experts. While multidisciplinary involvement remains important, I highlighted that addressing complex water and climate challenges in the Mesopotamian region requires scientific rigor and the leadership of experts in water policy, water governance, and hydrological research. I explained that, in developing countries such as Iraq, policymakers often rely on limited local mindsets and resist the input of scientists, which restricts the development of effective solutions. I argued that governance positions related to water should be given to qualified experts to ensure that climate change impacts and water scarcity are addressed through informed, scientific, and sustainable strategies. I believe the urgent and deteriorating situation of the Tigris-Euphrates Rivers demands immediate intervention by both local authorities and international organizations. Therefore, the recommendations I have outlined, particularly the need for expert-driven governance, should be swiftly implemented, especially in Iraq, to prevent further environmental degradation and ensure sustainable water management. The author would like to acknowledge the use of ChatGPT (OpenAI) for assistance in improving the language and clarity of the manuscript. The intellectual content, ideas, and research presented in this work are entirely original and solely the responsibility of the author. The author declares no conflicts of interest. Data sharing is not applicable to this article as no datasets were generated or analysed during the current study. 连接技术与外交: 人工智能在美索不达米亚地区水短缺管理中的作用 Sarmad Dashti Latif CA1 1 Komar University of Science and Technology Article Type - Guest Editorial 关键词: 外交, 水短缺, 美索不达米亚, 政治学, 匮乏, 公共外交 全文: 连接技术与外交: 人工智能在美索不达米亚地区水短缺管理中的作用 Sarmad Dashti Latif 1, * 1 Civil Engineering Department, College of Engineering, Komar University of Science and Technology, Sulaimany, Kurdistan Region 46001, Iraq. email protected 第二届美索不达米亚水论坛于2025年10月17日至19日在土耳其迪亚巴克尔召开, 汇聚了来自美索不达米亚各国的专家、民间社会人士、政策制定者、研究人员和社区代表, 就跨界水外交、生态变化以及底格里斯河-幼发拉底河流域共享水资源的未来等议题展开了多方面的讨论。在各场会议中, 与会者对水资源的政治化和安全化表示强烈担忧, 并强调水不应被用作武器, 因为水与生命息息相关。与会者反复警告, 未来全球冲突, 甚至可能爆发第三次世界大战, 都可能围绕水资源展开, 这凸显了保护和管理水资源作为该地区共享生命线的至关重要性。 与会者强调, 美索不达米亚河流系统的高蒸发量意味着大量水资源的流失, 而这一现象往往被忽视, 但却十分显著。尽管蒸发对下游社区的用水量影响巨大, 但在区域讨论中, 蒸发问题却被忽视了。区域状况也得到了深入研究, 尤其是在伊朗, 该国严重的水资源短缺、分布不均以及超过8800万的人口加剧了水资源压力 (Bayat-afshary et al. 2025) 。讨论强调, 过去几十年对地下水的过度抽取导致伊朗地面沉降和地下水枯竭, 而周期性的突发洪水则对基础设施造成了严重破坏。2019年的洪水造成了约83亿美元的损失, 影响了数百万人, 这场洪水被提及, 它鲜明地提醒人们该地区基础设施和社区的脆弱性 (Golian et al. 2021) 。 水资源短缺与粮食安全直接相关, 多位发言者指出, 伊拉克86%的用水需求依赖于底格里斯河和幼发拉底河 (Al-Dabbas, 2024) 。与会者提醒论坛, 美索不达米亚早期社会在水资源管理方面展现出卓越的智慧和效率, 然而, 20世纪气候变化、人口增长以及上游水坝建设带来了日益严峻的水资源挑战。与会者反复担忧一些上游国家将水资源作为经济工具, 多位发言者警告称, 底格里斯河和幼发拉底河未来可能比石油更具战略意义, 从而加剧国内冲突、粮食不安全以及更广泛的生态失衡。 流域环境恶化问题也得到了广泛讨论。与会者指出, 土壤盐碱化加剧, 生态退化导致鱼类死亡率上升, 河床变得平坦, 未经处理的污水排放严重降低了水质。与会者普遍认为, 必须保护底格里斯河与幼发拉底河的流量平衡, 持续的水质监测至关重要。他们强调, 让当地农民参与决策过程至关重要, 并指出“提高公众对水质和水资源保护的认识”是实现长期可持续发展的根本。 治理挑战也是本次会议的核心议题之一。与会者认为, 缺乏有效的外交手段, 冲突将不可避免。他们以巴基斯坦-印度和巴基斯坦-阿富汗的争端为例, 说明缺乏合作框架如何加剧地区紧张局势。许多与会者指出, 伊拉克水资源短缺的部分原因是地区政治决策和政策造成的。会议注意到, 伊拉克努力将其湿地纳入国际组织体系, 这是争取全球认可和支持保护这些生态系统的重要一步。 讨论期间, 一位土耳其专家用一个比喻来解释: 许多人试图攀登一座山峰, 但只有那些最终登顶的人才能成功。这个比喻旨在强调下游国家应该着重加强内部水资源管理体系, 而不是仅仅将水资源短缺归咎于上游的做法。与会者一致认为, 该地区历史上的水资源协议已经过时, 必须进行更新以反映当前的环境状况。采矿被认为是污染源之一；尽管由于其经济重要性无法停止, 但环境影响评估和可行性研究对于减轻负面影响至关重要。一位参与者提出了一个关键问题: 如果水本身不承认国界, 那么为什么允许政治边界分割和控制共享的水资源呢? 面对日益严重的水资源短缺、污染和气候变化的影响, 美索不达米亚等地区 (底格里斯河与幼发拉底河的发源地) 共享水资源的未来变得充满不确定性。传统的水资源管理实践往往侧重于局部解决方案, 但转向更加全球化、技术驱动的方法至关重要 (Abdulwahid and Jawad 2025) 。人工智能 (AI) 和机器学习为加强水资源管理提供了强大的工具 (Biazar et al. 2025), 尤其是在沿岸国家之间的水资源外交方面。美索不达米亚地区被誉为文明的摇篮, 拥有悠久的先进水资源管理历史 (Lorenz and Erickson 2023) 。然而, 如今底格里斯河与幼发拉底河面临着水资源短缺、污染和气候变化等严峻挑战 (Abdulwahid and Jawad 2025; AL-Hudaib et al. 2025) 。人工智能可以通过提供关于河流流量 (Gacu et al. 2025) 、降雨量 (Sham et al. 2025) 和蒸发率 (Novotná et al. 2025) 的精准预测来变革水资源管理。全球70%的淡水用于农业, 而在伊拉克, 这一比例超过80% (UNICEF 2021) 。人工智能驱动的传感器和先进的灌溉系统能将用水量减少高达50%, 并将生产力提高20-30%, 从而促进可持续利用 (OĞUZTÜRK 2025) 。水外交在解决沿岸国家之间的冲突中发挥着至关重要的作用 (Rodrigues et al. 2025) 。基于以上信息, 我认为人工智能可以通过提供可靠、透明的数据来弥合沟通鸿沟, 使各方都能利用这些数据来评估水资源可用性并预测未来需求。这些数据能够提供基于气候模型、人口增长和农业需求的预测, 从而促进谈判, 并推动建设性的、数据驱动的决策。在这些更广泛的讨论中, 我的文章了一个基于科学分析的专业视角。凭借在水政策和水安全研究方面的专业知识, 我强调了人工智能和机器学习作为现代水外交工具的潜力。我解释称, 对底格里斯河-幼发拉底河流域未来水资源可用性、降雨分布和河流流量状况进行预测建模, 能显著提高土耳其和伊拉克等国基于客观数据、相互理解和前瞻性评估进行跨界水资源管理谈判的能力。我的文章强调了区域水外交需要采用创新和科学的方法。 论坛最后一天的重点是巩固各项建议, 并探讨区域合作的可能路径。讨论的核心在于需要从紧张关系转向合作, 采取基于流域的对话和包容性沟通方式。与会者强调, 讨论水资源问题的语言应促进理解和集体行动。他们呼吁尊重河流的权利, 并倡导发展小型灌溉技术, 尤其是在幼发拉底河周边地区。公众参与生态保护被视为不可或缺, 与会者反复强调妇女应在水资源治理和政策制定中发挥重要作用。会议强调了地方社区参与水资源管理决策的重要性, 以及非政府组织、地方社区、学术界和民间社会组织之间需要保持透明和共同决策。 与会者强调, 美索不达米亚地区的居民应平等地分享水资源的利益和负担, 与会者强调, for Water and of and Humanitarian of Regional of to Water The of Iraq. 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