Current and future exposure of sandgrouse populations to utility-scale photovoltaic power plants within their main European breeding range

Rapid photovoltaic (PV) growth without proper spatial planning may conflict with biodiversity conservation. As a general framework to safeguard threatened species we used ecological niche models (ENMs), a newly developed spatially-explicit layer of PV facilities, and PV power potential maps to identify 1) current and future PV exposure areas, and 2) No-Go areas where PV developments should be avoided due to high conservation value. We apply this framework to two steppe bird species – the pin-tailed and the black-bellied sandgrouse ( Pterocles alchata and P. orientalis ) – in Spain, where fast PV development is currently underway. We found that the current extent of suitable area was broader for P. orientalis (53k km 2 ) than for P. alchata (38k km 2 ), but this extent may shrink down by 10.1–32.7% (47.8–35.8k km 2 ) and by 44.3–46.9% (21.3 k-20.3 km 2 ), respectively, under future Sustainable and Fossil-fuelled climate change scenarios. The current exposure of sandgrouse distributions and suitable areas to PV facilities ranged between 3.0 and 6.3%, with conflict areas mostly located towards southern, central and north eastern Spain. Yet, range contractions will lead to ca. 98% overlap with areas of high PV potential, with forecasted exposure of 27.3–28.7% for P. alchata and 12.2–16.3% for P. orientalis by 2050. Finally, No-Go areas occupy 23,150 km 2 , leaving over 280k km 2 of high solar power potential for PV development. Our framework allowed the identification of No-Go areas that can effectively guide spatial planning to reconcile PV developments with the effective conservation of Iberian sandgrouse populations and, potentially, other steppe birds, now and in the near future. • Rapid photovoltaic (PV) growth without spatial planning may affect biodiversity. • Steppe birds associated with low-productivity areas are exposed to PV developments. • Identifying current and future exposure areas can guide conservation planning. • Current exposure of sandgrouse to PV is low, but will markedly increase by 2050. • No-Go areas can safeguard current and future suitable areas for sandgrouse