Rethinking China's power decarbonization pathway under new socioeconomic uncertainties: A multi-objective perspective via bottom-up modelling and scenario analysis

The low-carbon transition of China’s power sector is becoming increasingly complex under evolving global and domestic circumstances, including energy security concerns under geopolitical tensions, surging electricity demand, volatility from high renewable shares, and lock-in effects of existing coal-fired capacity. This study aims to assess how these emerging challenges reshape the decarbonization pathways of China's power sector and their implications for carbon and air pollutant emissions. We develop a bottom-up, multi-module simulation model that integrates the latest technological developments and evolving electricity demand patterns, and construct a rich set of scenarios based on alternative socioeconomic pathways and low-carbon power transition strategies. The Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) decomposition model is employed to decompose emission changes between 2020 and 2060 into five contributing drivers. Our results indicate that China’s electricity demand will reach 16.4-23.7 PWh by 2060, driven by end-use electrification and emerging high-load industries. Wind and solar are expected to provide up to 70% of electricity generation, with support from clean and dispatchable sources including nuclear, hydropower, gas-fired power, energy storage, and at least 5% of abated coal capacity after flexible and low-carbon retrofitting. Regarding co-benefits for carbon and pollution reduction, clean power transition offers the strongest synergy, followed by thermal power structure optimization, while end-of-pipe control technologies and CCS technologies primarily target pollutant and carbon emissions reduction, respectively, with negative effects on the other. We suggest integrating emerging trend assessments, enhanced demand-side management, and coordinated carbon and air pollution control into future power system planning. • Develop a bottom-up, multi-module framework for energy system transition analysis • Electricity demand is projected under diverse socioeconomic development scenarios • Examine power transition pathways under climate, environment, and reliability goals • Clarify roles of power technologies in short- and long-term transition periods • Policy insights are offered for a clean, zero-carbon, and reliable power transition