Biodiversity horizons: towards a framework for predicting climate risks to biodiversity at actionable timescales

Climate change is increasingly exposing biodiversity to harmful temperatures, resulting in range shifts, die-offs, and population declines. However, most biodiversity projections focus on a few specific time points, typically near the end of the century. This limited temporal scope constrains our ability to (1) predict when and how quickly species will be exposed to dangerous temperatures, and (2) capture the risks posed not only by changes in long-term climate averages but also by the increasing frequency and intensity of extreme temperatures. Andreas will show how using climate data at higher temporal resolutions (e.g., yearly projections) has revealed previously unknown aspects of climate risk to biodiversity, and how even finer resolutions (weeks and months) can provide critical information for biodiversity scientists and conservationists in both fundamental and applied research.