Safety risk analysis of earth-rock dams based on the DEMATEL-ISM-ANP coupled model: With lianghekou hydropower station for example

Earth-rock dams are one of the most widely used dam types worldwide. The safety risk factors of dams typically demonstrate multi-source, inter-coupled, and dynamic features. There are complex interrelationships between these risk factors. Understanding these mutual influences holds great value, as it enables engineers to make precise decisions and management plans. Taking the Lianghekou earth-rock dam as a case study, this paper adopts the DEMATEL-ISM-ANP coupled model to analyze various risk factors from an interactive perspective. This model establishes a multi-level hierarchical structure and quantifies the weighting of each risk factor. To reduce subjective influence, an improved formula for determining thresholds is proposed. The results indicate that dam foundation and slope treatment, impermeable material and capacity of dam to release floodwater are key factors affecting the safety of earth-rock dams. Based on the conclusions, it is crucial to develop a more comprehensive, efficient, and flexible management plan for earth-rock dams. • This paper utilized Lianghekou 300-meter-class ultra-high earth-rock dam as a case study. • A DEMATEL-ISM-ANP coupled model was proposed to analyze the risk factors. • An enhanced empirical formula was proposed to address the interrelationships among risk factors. • Our results are crucial for developing comprehensive management plans and facilitating precise decision-making.