Previous research indicates that cognitive and affective-motivational factors, along with gender, influence students’ educational choices, especially regarding STEM tracks. However, few longitudinal studies have examined these factors during middle school, a critical stage in shaping future academic trajectories. This study investigated the longitudinal contribution of gender, cognitive abilities, and affective-motivational factors, such as self-concept, math interest, and math anxiety, in predicting students’ school choice between STEM and non-STEM tracks at the end of middle school. Data were collected from 159 Italian students, followed from seventh to eighth grade. Findings indicated that gender and positive attitudes toward math were strongly associated with STEM school choice. Boys were more likely than girls to choose STEM tracks (b = 5.048). Higher levels of math self-concept (b = 4.848) and interest (b = 0.887) significantly predicted the likelihood of choosing a STEM school. These results highlight how gender and affective-motivational factors shape educational pathways during adolescence.
Esposito et al. (2026) studied this question.