The Geoeconomics of Critical Minerals: Implications of a Trump–Central Asia Framework Agreement

Abstract: China’s aggressive geoeconomic strategy to dominate global supplies of critical minerals and rare earth elements (REEs) prompted President Trump to declare a national emergency and seek alternative sources, including from the vast, untapped reserves of Central Asia. Central Asians are keen to attract American investment while China and Russia want to exclude the United States from the region. I test the hypothesis that private investment in Central Asia to help meet the United States’ accelerating demand is a credible alternative to sourcing from allied democratic states. Three countries (Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan) are examined for access to the critical minerals subject to Chinese export restrictions (gallium, germanium and antimony).