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March 6, 20260 citationsOpen Access

A Probabilistic Model for Detecting Post-Biological Civilizations with Computational Efficiency Constraints

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KSKonstantin Skulkin

Key Points

  • The research aims to refine the Drake Equation to better detect post-biological civilizations and address observational challenges.
  • Modification of the Drake Equation to include new coefficients.
  • Analysis of observational signatures and their detectability.
  • Examination of computational efficiency and temporal asymmetry in civilization transitions.
  • Suggestions for new search strategies focusing on thermodynamic and informational signatures.
  • Estimates the detectability coefficient for post-biological civilizations at σ_det ~ 10^-27.
  • Indicates that direct detection of these civilizations is virtually impossible with current astronomical methods.
  • Highlights the need to explore indirect signatures in colder areas of space.

Abstract

We propose a modification to the Drake Equation that accounts for the transition of civilizations into a post-biological phase and the associated changes in observational signatures. We introduce coefficients for computational efficiency, temporal asymmetry, and signature reduction. The model explains the absence of observed signals without invoking the hypothesis of life's rarity. Our analysis suggests that the detectability coefficient for post-biological civilizations is approximately σdet ~ 10^-27, rendering direct detection virtually impossible with current methods. We propose a reorientation of search strategies toward indirect thermodynamic and informational signatures in cold regions of space.

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Cite This Study

Konstantin Skulkin (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/69aa70e7531e4c4a9ff5b227https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18867365
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