Drought is associated with human migration in agriculture-dependent middle-income countries

Abstract Human migration has been an essential and transformative process, driven by the need to adapt to changing environmental, social, and economic conditions. Here we explore associations between drought events and migration patterns worldwide, compounded by climatic and socio-economic factors such as armed conflict, water withdrawal, crop yield, income and health metrics, in agriculturally dependent regions during the period 2000–2019. We show that, while socio-economic factors remain the primary drivers of migration, drought also exerts a strong influence. Our findings reveal that drought were major predictors of migration in approximately 11% of the regions analyzed, with robust drought-migration associations in middle-income regions. High-income urban areas do not exhibit strong migration dynamics linked to drought, while changes in income conditions and water withdrawal were associated with emigration. This study underscores the need for a comprehensive understanding of the global impacts of drought on migration patterns in agriculture-dependent regions to inform effective and sustainable strategies of disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation.