Time-Series Satellite-Based Monitoring of Land-Use Change and Forest Loss in Bhutan: Implications for Forest Carbon Measurement, Reporting, and Verification

Human-driven land-use change has significantly altered forest ecosystems and carbon dynamics in mountainous regions. This study aims to quantify land cover transitions and associated forest carbon stocks changes in Bhutan. It also seeks to support the development of a national measurement, reporting, and verification system. Using Landsat-based satellite imagery and object-based image classification techniques, we assessed forest cover transitions, stand structure variations, and forest type changes across temporal intervals. The analysis revealed a consistent increase in agricultural and built-up areas. It also showed a concomitant decline in coniferous forest cover. In particular, agricultural land increased by approximately 0.77 million ha, while coniferous forest decreased by approximately 0.19 million ha over the study period. These changes were driven by both climatic shifts and socio-economic factors. Approximately 57% of Bhutan’s population depends on agriculture. Correspondingly, forest carbon stocks declined from approximately 570 million tC in 1995 to 405 million tC in 2017. This decline was largely attributed to coniferous forest loss and climate-induced mortality. Bhutan has made significant preparations for the implementation of the Warsaw REDD+ framework under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. These preparations include the establishment of a forest reference emission level for submission. However, challenges remain in detecting small-scale land use changes. Additional challenges include addressing spectral misclassification in mountainous regions. Our study provides a scientific baseline to support national forest monitoring and carbon accounting systems. It also offers policy-relevant insights for achieving Bhutan’s nationally determined contributions and enhancing its carbon sink potential.