Low-Carbon Certification vs. Carbon Surcharges: A Recursive Dynamic GTAP Assessment of EU/UK Border Measures for China’s Seafood Exports

This study compares two policy instruments for decarbonizing China’s seafood exports to the EU and UK over 10 years using a recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium model. One instrument applies tariff-like carbon surcharges on embedded emissions at the border. The other recognises certified low-carbon production through tiered rate reductions or exemptions. The model constructs product-level carbon cost wedges for processing electricity, aluminium packaging, and cold-chain operations, then transmits them to border prices through pass-through and to import volumes through Armington demand. These mechanisms operate inside a dynamic setting with capital accumulation, learning, and technology adoption. We evaluate processed tuna, shrimp, whitefish, and fresh tilapia to reflect differences in energy use, packaging intensity, and cold-chain reliance. Results show that certification, especially when paired with targeted domestic green finance or tax offsets, speeds adoption of cleaner power and refrigerants and preserves market share better than uniform surcharges. Effects differ between coastal and inland production hubs, supporting location-specific policy bundles. Sensitivity analysis varies carbon prices, adoption speeds, and certification coverage within stated parameter ranges. We report trade, export revenue, emissions, investment, and welfare outcomes and identify product and channel drivers of exposure.