Scenario planning to support the transformative adaptation of a collapsing fishery

Abstract Marine fisheries systems are increasingly impacted by climate-driven ecological and general socioeconomic changes, challenging their sustainability and the viability of dependent coastal communities. Traditional incremental adaptation strategies have proven insufficient, particularly in regions like the German Western Baltic Sea, where fisheries face severe declines in key species such as cod and herring due to climate change, overfishing, and eutrophication. Here, we employed qualitative exploratory scenario planning to envision plausible futures and to inform transformative adaptation strategies. Our approach highlighted critical areas for transformation: implementing ecosystem-based management, rethinking resource allocation, diversifying livelihoods, and enhancing transdisciplinary collaboration. These adaptation fields collectively address key features of successful transformative adaptation, including restructuring pathways, fostering innovation, and promoting multiscale and system-wide resilience. Our scenarios emphasize that effective climate preparedness and societal integration are crucial for navigating fisheries toward sustainable futures, underlining the urgent need for comprehensive and proactive adaptation strategies.