This study examines the impact of geopolitical reshoring—namely, US trade policy and Sino-American rivalry—on the transformation of Mexican maquiladora plants, and identifies strategic directions for their adaptation in the new reality. The research employs a comparative analysis of statistical data for 2024–2025, content analysis of official documents, a synthesis of previous studies, as well as SWOT analysis and cross-SWOT analysis. It is shown that the US–China trade war and the policy of "friendshoring" have made Mexico the primary beneficiary of the restructuring of global supply chains. In 2024, maquiladora exports exceeded USD 210 billion, foreign investment in the manufacturing industry reached an all-time high (USD 36 billion), and Mexico's share of US imports (15.8%) surpassed China's for the first time in 20 years. Structural constraints are identified: dependence on imported components (60–80% local value added), infrastructure and labor shortages, and environmental risks. Based on SWOT analysis, key opportunities (technological upgrading, development of local suppliers, green investments) and threats (protectionism, stricter USMCA requirements, competition from Asia and CAFTA-DR) are highlighted. Four groups of strategies and recommendations are proposed for businesses, the Mexican government, and international business partners. For the first time, a comprehensive analysis of the impact of geopolitical reshoring on Mexican maquiladoras has been conducted using current data from 2024–2025. The concepts of reshoring (nearshoring) and friendshoring are systematized in relation to the Mexican context, the dual role of US protectionist measures is revealed, and adaptation strategies are proposed that take into account contemporary geopolitical dynamics. The results can be used by researchers of the global economy and international business, government agencies, and investor companies to adjust industrial and investment policies. Geopolitical reshoring opens unique opportunities for Mexican maquiladoras not only with neighboring countries, but also with trading partners from Europe and Asia; however, their realization requires overcoming structural constraints. The key priorities should be: the development of local suppliers, infrastructure modernization, workforce training, green transformation, and diversification of export markets.
Berdina et al. (Thu,) studied this question.
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