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March 10, 2026European Financial Management0 citations

Weather‐Induced Positive Sentiment and Insider Trading

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DCDouglas CummingRSRui SunLXLimin Xu

Key Points

  • The study aims to explore how variations in weather influence the trading behavior of insiders through sentiment.
  • Analyzed insider trading patterns in relation to sunshine exposure variations.
  • Investigated the moderating effects of insiders' characteristics like rank, age, gender, and education.
  • Assessed the link between positive sentiment and the performance of insider trades.
  • Insiders buy more stocks during sunny weather influenced by positive sentiment.
  • These insider purchases show lower performance, suggesting overoptimism may lead to poor trading decisions.
  • The impact is stronger when insiders interpret private information optimistically.

Abstract

ABSTRACT Exploiting variations in sunshine exposure near insiders' locations, we find that weather‐induced positive sentiment leads to higher insider purchases, albeit with lower performance. Overoptimism induced by abnormally good weather serves as the underlying mechanism. The effect is more pronounced when insiders' purchase decisions are fuelled by their optimistic interpretation of perceived private information. Insiders' personal characteristics, including executive ranks, age, gender, and educational qualifications, also moderate the effect. Our findings highlight the important yet overlooked influence of weather‐induced sentiment on insider trading.

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Cite This Study

Cumming et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/69af955970916d39fea4cddchttps://doi.org/10.1111/eufm.70057
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