Different stakeholder-based forest management scenarios facilitate balancing conservation and production in the bioeconomy

Land-use policies founded on the expertise and interests of key stakeholders are likely the most implementable and politically long-lasting, assuming stakeholders share a broader, similar perception of the future. We investigated whether there is a difference in how eleven indicator species of conservation concern may be affected given policy and forestry scenarios of four key forest stakeholders for a 100 000 ha Swedish landscape over the coming 100 years. We used colonization-extinction models and species distribution models. Most species had stable or increasing metapopulation sizes or occurrence probabilities after 100 years under all except the most production-oriented scenario by private landowners. For six wood-decaying fungi, forests protected or managed with continuous cover forestry (CCF) drove the positive developments. By contrast, these species essentially disappeared from stands with even-aged clearcutting forestry. Regarding the 14.5% strict protection applied by the state-owned forest company increased the area occupied by these species. Protecting an even larger area and application of CCF in the scenarios of the (non-)governmental conservation organizations increased fungal metapopulation sizes even more. Four bird species showed stable or positive developments in all scenarios. The same held true for the epiphytic lichen Lobaria pulmonaria , because the management applied projected increasing host tree numbers and densities. Thus, protecting up to 20% of the productive forest, applying more alternative management regimes and less even-aged clearcutting rotation forestry has the potential to greatly increase the (meta)population size and improve the red-list status of all the focal species, and presumably also of other species of conservation concern. • Policies based on stakeholder interests are the most implementable, long-lasting. • Several stakeholder scenarios mean future increases of conservation species. • Share of continuous cover forestry and protection drive positive developments. • Some species largely disappear from stands with even-aged clearcutting management. • Strictly protecting up to 20% can compensate for clearcutting management.