Wanted: A population genetic theory of biological noise regulation

Classical population genetics provides a robust, quantitative framework for modeling how natural selection acts on alleles that influence phenotypes with invariant fitness consequences for their carriers, such as running speed or drug resistance. By contrast, modifier theory considers the evolution of alleles that influence population genetic parameter values in their carriers, such as mutation or recombination rates. This is a more complicated problem. First, the fitness effects of modifier alleles reflect independently realized stochastic phenotype perturbations they induce in their carriers. And second, the association between modifier alleles and their induced phenotypes can decay over generations. Consequently, general results in modifier theory have been few. Here, we propose recasting modifier theory as exploring the evolution of alleles that influence the amount of stochasticity in inheritance, be it genetic, epigenetic, cytoplasmic or somatic transmission. We then present a toy model that predicts the existence of a selectively optimal amount of such “reproductive noise,” which depends on the rate of environment change, the timescale of association between noise allele and induced phenotype, and population size. Next, we suggest that the same framework can be applied to the evolution of alleles that influence “developmental noise,” i.e., the amount of stochastic phenotypic variation among genetically identical organisms reared in identical environments. This theoretical connection is timely, because high throughput assays are now demonstrating widespread heritability in the amount of developmental noise. Our approach also resolves the long-standing teleological criticism of the hypothesis that evolvability can evolve by natural selection. Taken together, this work demonstrates the opportunities for a robust, quantitative population genetic theory of alleles that influence the amount of biological noise.