Trajectory Integrity and Structural Decision Quality: A Formal Framework for Decision Evaluation in Complex Systems

This working paper introduces a trajectory-based framework for evaluating decision quality in complex adaptive systems. Traditional decision theory evaluates decisions primarily through expected outcomes such as expected utility, probabilistic risk, or cost–benefit analysis. However, in complex systems decisions often reshape the structural dynamics of the system itself and alter the distribution of possible future trajectories. This paper proposes a shift from outcome-based evaluation toward trajectory-based structural analysis. Instead of focusing only on expected results, the framework evaluates the distribution of system trajectories induced by a decision. The paper introduces the Decision Integrity Score (DIS), a structural metric designed to measure the robustness of trajectory distributions generated by decisions. The proposed framework integrates stochastic simulation, state-transition modeling, irreversibility analysis, and trajectory classification in order to estimate the systemic stability of decisions before their outcomes occur. By focusing on the geometry of system trajectories rather than isolated outcomes, the approach allows early detection of degradation paths and catastrophic trajectories that may remain invisible in traditional decision analysis frameworks. The paper also introduces the concept of Decision Architecture, an emerging analytical discipline focused on the structural design of decision environments and long-term systemic stability. Keywords: Operational Intelligence, Complex Systems, Decision Theory, Trajectory Analysis, Decision Integrity Score, Decision Architecture, System Stability, Irreversibility, Monte Carlo Simulation, Semi-Markov Processes.