Eradication and livelihoods: Household determinants of opium poppy cultivation in Eastern Afghanistan

• Farmers having experienced eradication campaigns are more likely to cultivate opium poppy. • Household debt and a lack of alternative employment opportunities increase the likelihood of poppy cultivation. • Access to extension services, credit, and irrigation infrastructure are associated with a lower tendency to grow poppies. • Results underscore the need for systemic approaches combining business development and improved public services. Despite recent policy interventions and eradication campaigns, opium poppy cultivation remains deeply embedded in the Afghan rural economy, questioning the success of the current anti-drug strategies. The objective of this study is to investigate farm households’ motives to cultivate opium poppy in Eastern Afghanistan. The study draws on a survey of farm households conducted between November 2024 and January 2025 in the eastern region. The decision to cultivate poppy and the size of the land devoted to this crop have been analysed using binary logit, Tobit, and Heckman selection models relying on a total of 616 completed interviews. The analysis reveals that past eradication campaigns have not been effective. Farmers who have experienced eradication are 13.2% more inclined to cultivate poppy than their peers. Likewise, those subjected to bribery demands and better connected to the authority are also more likely to grow poppy. Further variables positively associated with the likelihood of poppy cultivation include household debts and a lack of alternative employment opportunities. Conversely, access to extension services, credit, irrigation infrastructure, and regular religious attendance are negatively associated with poppy farming. The study recommends an integrated, development-focused policy approach, emphasising financial inclusion, non-poppy related business development, public services for agriculture, and a credible administration to achieve sustainable, long-term reduction in illegal cultivation.