Machine Learning Framework for Evaluating the Cooling Performance of Wetlands in a Tropical Coastal City

This study investigates the cooling effects of coastal wetland systems in Hue City, Vietnam. The analysis focuses on their riparian buffer zones, defined here as areas within 600 m of the wetland boundary. Landsat 8 imagery was used to derive land surface temperature (LST) from 1 March to 31 July 2025—a recent period marked by multiple heatwaves across the region. To assess the cooling performance of wetlands, data samples were collected within the buffer zones. A Light Gradient Boosting Machine was trained to characterize the relationship between cooling intensity and a set of influencing factors (e.g., distance to wetland boundary, land use/land cover, built-up density, and green space density). The model explains approximately 91% of the variation in cooling intensity around wetlands. Notably, a machine-learning-based simulation framework was proposed to attain insights into the cooling characteristics of the riparian zone. The result indicates a mean cooling effect of about 2 °C and an effective cooling distance of 210 m from the wetland boundary. Partial dependence analysis further reveals that increasing built-up density substantially weakens cooling performance and implies that, for the conditions observed in Hue City, maintaining built-up density near wetlands below roughly 45% is favorable for sustaining effective cooling of the blue space, as indicated by the model-based partial dependence analysis. Overall, the research findings provide a data-driven basis for informing urban planning and wetland management in Hue City to mitigate heat stress.