The Dutch disease and the Turkish experience

This paper examines whether Türkiye exhibits Dutch disease-like dynamics in the absence of a natural resource boom. Using annual macroeconomic and sectoral data for 2000-2024, we construct and interrogate a Dutch Disease Index that aggregates real effective exchange rate appreciation, resource dependence proxies, export composition, and net export pressures. Time series estimations relate the index to capital inflows, construction intensity and tourism receipts. The evidence does not indicate a textbook Dutch disease, but sustained Turkish Lira overvaluation, erosion of manufacturing competitiveness, and a disproportionate expansion of construction and services are consistent with Dutch disease-like symptoms. These findings underscore the need for policies that limit persistent overvaluation and support tradables capability through export diversification, innovation, and investment in productivity-enhancing infrastructure.