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March 21, 2026Engineering Reports0 citationsOpen Access

Existence, Stability, and Data‐Driven Analysis of a Fractional‐Order Avian Influenza Model in Poultry Farms

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SKSakirul KhanMDMahmoud H. DarAssiIAIrfan Ahmad

Key Points

  • The aim is to analyze a fractional-order model for avian influenza in chickens, focusing on its stability and control methods.
  • Utilized fractional derivatives to form a chicken disease model
  • Examined existence and uniqueness of solutions for the model
  • Analyzed stability of the disease-free and endemic equilibria
  • Fitted the model to real data from poultry farms in Bangladesh
  • Developed a numerical scheme for solution generation
  • The model exhibits local asymptotic stability at the disease-free equilibrium
  • A unique endemic equilibrium is established under specific conditions
  • Graphs indicate that the disease can be eliminated with appropriate parameters
  • With 80% vaccination efficacy, the model shows that treatment can control the disease effectively

Abstract

ABSTRACT In the present analysis, we consider a chicken disease model in fractional derivatives. The fractional model and its related results are discussed. We present the solution's existence and its uniqueness for the fractional chicken model. Stability at the Disease‐free equilibrium is shown, and found that when , the model is locally asymptotically stable. The existence of an endemic equilibrium when shows a unique endemic equilibrium. A numerical scheme to get the solution for the fractional chicken model is presented. Based on the real farm data in Bangladesh, the model is fitted, and the respective values of the parameters are obtained. We present graphical results to show that the disease can be eliminated under various conditions on model parameters. Using real farm data and an 80% vaccine efficacy, we show that the treatment, together with vaccine efficacy, makes the disease controllable.

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Cite This Study

Khan et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/69be35946e48c4981c673e2dhttps://doi.org/10.1002/eng2.70711
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