Resilience and food security: a dynamic evolutionary analysis of the global food trade network

Purpose In an era of intensifying climate change, geopolitical conflicts, and economic volatility, ensuring the stability of food supply chains is essential for food security. This study investigates a critical yet underexplored question: When subjected to diverse external shocks, do global food trade networks possess the necessary resilience and adaptability to maintain functional import channels for nations? Design/methodology/approach Utilizing trade data from 2000 to 2022, we construct and analyze four distinct global food trade networks: wheat and meslin, maize, rice, and a composite total food network. We employ a novel, multi-dimensional analytical framework that integrates the structural evolution of networks, node-level resilience, and structural resilience. The robustness of these networks is rigorously tested through simulations of both random and deliberate strategies, targeted attacks on core nodes. Findings Our analysis reveals that while global food trade networks are expanding and becoming more interconnected, their resilience is unevenly distributed. Countries like Japan, South Korea, Iran, and China are reliant on imported food and exhibit trade vulnerability due to concentrated import sources. Major food traders, including Canada, Mexico, China, and South Korea, serve as hub nodes of the network, alongside smaller trading nations like South Africa, Denmark, and Belgium. Among the four types of food trade networks, network connectivity is strongest for wheat and meslin, whereas the rice trade network displays the highest structural stability. Deliberate attacks are more detrimental to network resilience than random attacks, with the failure of core nodes such as France and Germany significantly exposing a critical systemic vulnerability. Originality/value Moving beyond prevailing research that often focuses on single shock types or aggregate networks, this paper provides a nuanced, multi-network and multi-strategy analysis of trade resilience. It introduces an integrated node-structure framework for assessing systemic risk. The findings offer actionable insights for policymaker, emphasizing the urgency of diversifying import sources, strengthening regional trade cooperation, and developing differentiated contingency plans based on specific network roles and shock characteristics.