Globally informed and locally refined: Market, management, and carbon projections for the Southeastern United States forest sector

This study integrates recently updated National-Scale Volume Biomass (NSVB) estimates with a spatially-aware carbon accounting methodology in the SubRegional Timber Supply (SRTS) model to project forest market dynamics, land use change, inventory, and carbon fluxes for the Southeastern United States through 2070. Using four socioeconomic scenarios from the 2020 Resources Planning Act (RPA) Assessment aligned with IPCC Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), we analyze how global market demands interact with regional forest management, market, and carbon dynamics. Results indicate declining softwood pulpwood prices across all scenarios despite increasing demand, driven by inventory accumulation while sawtimber markets show flat to rising prices under most scenarios. We project a relatively stable carbon sink coming from managed planted pine systems, despite an overall decline in the regional aboveground forest carbon sink. This finding underscores the important contribution planted systems can have to the US and global LULUCF carbon sinks. A bootstrapped sensitivity analysis conducted around the elasticity assumptions reveals the extent to which inventory parameters influence the results compared with supply or demand assumptions. These findings illustrate the importance of market-responsive management in shaping future forest carbon trajectories. • Planted Pine systems are an important, stable source of carbon flux in the Southeast. • Low levels of softwood pulp demand with high inventory lead to depressed prices. • The SRTS model is most sensitive to inventory elasticities assumptions.