Reverse osmosis (RO) desalination systems face significant operational challenges, primarily due membrane fouling reduces both their operational effectiveness and their long-term operational capacity. Research has studied fouling mechanisms through laboratory experiments, but researchers have not yet conducted extended studies of actual operational conditions. The study uses SCADA data from an operational Moroccan demineralization facility to create and test a predictive data system which provides early warnings and diagnostic capabilities. Researchers used operational data through correlation analysis together with normalization and trend-based time-series evaluation methods to detect signals that indicate upcoming membrane and pretreatment fouling issues. The study results demonstrate that performance degradation begins after 15–20 days when differential pressure (ΔP), conductivity, and pretreatment pressure differentials deviate by about 10% highlighted correction: clarified deviation threshold, creating a window to schedule cleaning-in-place (CIP) operations. SEM–EDS membrane analysis revealed that organic substances contributed 42.8 wt% carbon and 30.1 wt% oxygen, which increased hydraulic resistance and reduced permeate flow. The SCADA monitoring system now applies statistical indicators to predict maintenance needs, resulting in lower chemical use and extended membrane life. The proposed thresholds require site-specific calibration before application to RO facilities with different feed water types, membrane configurations, and operational settings. need to undergo site-specific calibration because they require new calibration procedures which must be conducted before applying them to RO facilities that use different feedwater types and different membrane configurations and different operational settings. • Six-year full-scale SCADA data used to analyze RO membrane fouling behavior. • Differential pressure trends predict membrane fouling 15-20 days in advance. • Data-driven thresholds enable predictive maintenance and optimized CIP scheduling. • Time-series analysis reveals non-Gaussian behavior of RO operational variables. • SEM-EDS autopsy confirms dominant organic fouling on long-term RO membranes.
Elyaakouby et al. (2026) studied this question.