What kind of energy transition? Public opinion trade-offs between economic growth, ecological sustainability, and equity

Abstract The Russian invasion of Ukraine, and the ensuing increased concerns over energy prices, have created new controversies in the European political discourse over how to pursue an energy transition that can reconcile economic, environmental, and social objectives. In this context, this paper examines public opinion priorities and potential trade-offs across social groups regarding the need to combat climate change, ensure energy supply, and protect household disposable income. Using a conjoint survey experiment embedded in a cross-national survey conducted in December 2022, at the peak of the ‘energy crisis’, we first examine citizens’ preferences for alternative policy packages to respond to situations that vary among three conflicting dimensions: the climate and energy strategy pursued by national governments, different kinds of social compensation measures, and financing mechanisms. Second, we explore how these preferences vary across ideological leanings, socioeconomic groups, and vulnerability profiles related to environmental degradation and policies mitigating the effects of climate change. Our findings indicate that synergies exist between ecological and social goals: support for renewable energy investment increases when policies include social transfers and progressive financing mechanisms. However, partisan and socioeconomic divides make this multidimensional policy issue politically challenging. Policy solutions that combine renewables investments with social compensation are attractive to left-leaning individuals and to the pivotal group of centrist voters. However, low-income production workers who fear job loss tend to remain opposed to the energy transition, even when compensation is provided. This result highlights the trade-offs and political dilemmas that (left-leaning) parties face when navigating the energy transition.