How to reduce agricultural pesticide risks? An evaluation of policy mixes considering stakeholder preferences and uncertain consequences

Pesticide use in agriculture is a pressing but complex sustainability problem. It involves various stakeholders and trade-offs between health, environmental, agroeconomic, and sociopolitical objectives. To address the problem, effective policy mixes must be designed. For this, they must be evaluated for their probability of achieving the diverse objectives, considering stakeholder preferences for trade-offs and risks. Previous studies have evaluated the coherence of objectives and the consistency and congruence of instruments to assess the effectiveness of policy mixes. However, they overlook the influence of nondesign activities in policy formulation that are shaped by interests. To grasp the full potential of policy mixes, evaluations must consider stakeholder preferences and measure consequences across multiple objectives. This study aims to conduct such an evaluation. We adapted a participatory multicriteria decision analysis using multiattribute value and utility theory to evaluate seven mixes of policy instruments for reducing agricultural pesticide risks in Switzerland. Our evaluation included the consequences of the policy mixes for 16 objectives, predicted from expert interviews and literature, and the preferences of stakeholders in economy, administration, and civil society. Stakeholder preferences, including rarely considered attitudes toward the risks of gains and losses for specific objectives, were decisive for the performance of the policy mixes. Despite conflicting preferences and high uncertainty, we found that one policy mix of risk-based tax incentives on pesticide use and an adapted pesticide approval process performed best for all. This finding was surprising given the limited support from some stakeholders for the tax incentives when asked directly. We conclude that a value-based evaluation of policy mixes could enrich policy choice architecture. Focusing on stakeholders' preferences for achieving policy objectives can inform decision-making by identifying effective policy mixes with a potential for consensus in contentious debates about how to reduce agricultural pesticide risks. • Participatory multicriteria decision analysis process to address complex problems. • Evaluation of various policy mixes to reduce agricultural pesticide risks. • Evaluation considering trade-offs, uncertainty, and stakeholder preferences. • Rarely considered attitudes to risk affect policy mix performance under uncertainty. • Focusing on objectives can help find policy mixes with consensus potential.