Comparative Statistical Detection of Ionospheric GPS-TEC Anomalies Associated with the 2021 Haiti and 2022 Cyprus Earthquakes

Global Positioning System (GPS)-derived ionospheric electron concentration measurements provide a powerful observational framework for seismo-electromagnetic studies, enabling quantitative investigation of lithosphere–atmosphere–ionosphere coupling processes through statistically detectable perturbations in ionospheric electron concentration. We analyze GPS-derived Vertical Total Electron Content (VTEC) variations associated with the 14 August 2021 Haiti earthquake (Mw 7.2) and the 11 January 2022 Cyprus earthquake (Mw 6.6) using data from nearby International GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System) Service (IGS) stations located within their respective earthquake preparation zones. VTEC time series spanning 45 days before and 7 days after each event are processed to remove the diurnal component, yielding residuals that isolate short-term ionospheric variability. Anomaly detection is performed using three statistical frameworks: a Gaussian mean, standard deviation model, a robust median/median absolute deviation (MAD) model, and a distribution-free quantile-based model. Daily “occurrence” and “energy” indices are constructed to quantify the frequency and cumulative strength of detected anomalies, respectively. While the indices exhibit similar temporal patterns across all methods, they indicate frequent anomaly detection, limiting statistical selectivity. To address this, both indices are normalized by their median values and filtered using a 95% quantile threshold, retaining only extreme deviations. This procedure substantially reduces background fluctuations and isolates a small number of statistically significant anomaly peaks. For both earthquakes, enhanced anomaly activity is identified in the weeks preceding the events, whereas post-event peaks coincide with periods of elevated meteorological and geomagnetic activity. The results demonstrate that normalization combined with robust statistical methods is essential for discriminating significant ionospheric TEC anomalies from background variability.