Introduction: This study investigated the impact of natural disasters on the incidence of acute rheumatic fever (ARF) among First Nations peoples in Australia, as reported from 2012 through 2021. Methods: Records covering natural disasters in Australia from 2012 to 2021 were compiled from the Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT) and the Australian Disaster Mapper. ARF incidence rates among First Nations peoples in Australia were retrieved from the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare, expressed as an annual incidence rate per 100,000 population. Calculations of ANOVA, simple linear regression, and multiple linear regression were performed to compare the number of natural disasters and the type of natural disasters to the incidence of ARF. Results: From 2017 to 2021, the annual incidence of ARF was significantly predicted by the number of natural disaster events in all five regions of Australia (p < .05), and even more strongly when excluding New South Wales (p < .01). From 2012 to 2021 using data excluding New South Wales, there was a weaker association between natural disaster events and ARF incidence (p = .07). When the natural disasters were further categorized into meteorological (including storms, floods, and cyclones) and climatological disasters (including fires, droughts, and heatwaves), a significant association was found between the type of disaster and ARF incidence from 2012 to 2021 (p = .02) and from 2017 to 2021 (p = .01). From 2012 to 2021, climatological disasters were a significant predictor with a negative correlation (p < .01). Conversely, from 2017 to 2021, meteorological disasters were the most significant predictor with a positive correlation (p < .01). Conclusion: The incidence of meteorological disasters is associated with ARF among First Nations people in Australia. These findings introduce ARF as a disease of concern that disproportionately affects vulnerable populations in the wake of natural disasters.
Angela Li (Sun,) studied this question.