Hybrid Simulation–expertise approach to balancing cost and resilience in global herbal supplement supply chains

• Proposes a novel hybrid simulation-expertise framework for supply chain decision-making under uncertainty. • Develops a robust Monte Carlo model for global supplier allocation and cost optimization in the herbal supplement industry. • Reveals and quantifies the critical trade-off between cost efficiency and supply chain resilience. • Provides validated, actionable insights for managers through structured expert consensus. • Offers a generalizable methodological framework applicable beyond herbal supplements. To address gaps in supply chain management for herbal supplements, this study proposes a hybrid frameworkthat integrates Monte Carlo simulation for quantitative risk assessment and cost optimization withtheDelphi method for qualitative refinement. Using a hypothetical complementary and alternative medicine firm sourcing ginseng, the simulation (10, 000 iterations) optimizesthe cost at USD 35, 171. 83 under 100% Chinese supplier allocation, with shortages at 14. 1% of demand. Parameters are refined throughDelphi validation by 12 experts (85% consensus), emphasizing diversification and sustainability, leading to an integrated allocation (87. 5% Chinese) at USD 36, 734. 12—a 4. 5% premium for enhanced resilience (shortages reduced to 13. 7%). Sensitivity analyses highlight trade-offs, such as 8. 5% cost increases from reliability drops. This validated approach advances supply chain management theory, offers generalizable insights for mitigating uncertainty in a 45. 65 billion market, and bridges quantitative efficiencies with real-world applicability.