Unraveling authoritarian reform decision‐making: A metacognitive–subcognitive model

Abstract Recent research indicates that state reforms in East and Southeast Asia have been predominantly top‐down and authoritarian‐led. However, this significant observation implicitly relies on important assumptions about authoritarian decision‐making behavior and psychology that remains understudied. Using a dynamical‐systems approach, this paper introduces a “metacognitive–subcognitive” model of cognitive uncertainties to analyze decision‐making in authoritarian‐led reforms. The model predicts that major authoritarian‐led political reform, such as democratization, is most likely to occur if the leader is “wishfully optimistic” enough to view the expected outcomes of the reform, despite the associated risks and pressures. Applying the model to six cases in East and Southeast Asia demonstrates the effectiveness of the model in decoding the state‐led reform decision‐making dynamics of authoritarian regimes. Overall, the paper proposes a new framework and methodology that can both distinguish and relate causal, structural, and contingent factors contributing to authoritarian decision‐making dynamics.