Predicting the potential distribution range of Oecleopsis sinicus Jacobi, 1944, an Asian endemic planthopper species, under CMIP6 climate change using the MaxEnt model

Oecleopsis sinicus (Jacobi, 1944) (Hemiptera: Cixiidae) is a serious phytophagous pest first recorded as an agricultural pest in China. This species has now expanded its distribution within its native Asian range, resulting in significant economic losses in agricultural production and posing potential threats to some important crops and vegetables in many countries. To determine the intrinsic connection between climate change and the geographical expansion of this pest, an optimised MaxEnt model was applied to examine the predicted geographic range of O. sinicus under current and projected climate scenarios (2041-2060, 2061-2080, and 2081-2100), using CMIP6 projections (SSP126 and SSP585). The model showed high predictive accuracy (area under the curve (AUC) = 0.940). By the end of the 21st century (2081-2100), MaxEnt modelling forecasts a significant expansion of suitable habitat for O. sinicus under both climate scenarios. The total suitable area is projected to be 511.7527 × 10⁴ km2 under the SSP126 scenario and 570.9165 × 10⁴ km2 under the SSP585 scenario. This represents an increase of 44.59% and 49.7%, respectively, compared to the present. The distribution of this species is predicted to shift and expand northwestward across Asia under all scenarios, with the most pronounced increase projected for East Asia under SSP585 (85.1% expansion during 2041-2060). This study can provide a foundation for pest monitoring, early warning measures, and quarantine strategies in high-risk countries.