Ethnic Transactionalism and Limits of Religious Polarization: Explaining the Decline of AIUDF in Assam

The decline of the All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) in the ethno-religious political ground of Assam in the 2024 parliamentary election was surprising. This necessitates a critical engagement with the recent developments leading to the party’s sharp decline. The Bhartiya Janta Party (BJP) and its avowed Hindu right nationalist agenda with context-specific modifications accommodating regional indigenous concerns have been major developments in the state’s politics. Such a phenomenon resulted in competitive mobilization benefitting both AIUDF and BJP initially. But in recent times, AIUDF has faced a major setback, whereas BJP’s tally has kept growing. The failure of AIUDF to withstand what we have termed in the article as the politics of ‘ethnic transactionalism’ pursued by BJP while relying heavily on religious polarization alone has been central to the decline of the former. The Indian National Congress (INC) struggles to regain its indigenous heartland where BJP holds the key, while minority belts are swinging along INC, AIUDF and NDA. In this study, data provided by the Election Commission of India (ECI); State Election Commission, Assam; and Lokniti-CSDS have been used. We engage analytically with the reconfigured ethnic concerns, religious fervour and changed alliance dynamics of Assam politics. We argue that the uncoalitionable nature of the AIUDF, stemming from both internal and external factors, and its fading support base are the two major causes of its decline.