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March 29, 2026Известия Российской академии наук Серия физическая / Bulletin of the Russian Academy of Sciences Physics0 citations

Comparison of the single-step and multistep approaches to prediction of the solar activity index

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VKV. KisieliusEIE. A. IllarionovRSR. A. Stepanov

Key Points

  • The aim is to compare single-step and multi-step forecasting methods for predicting the solar activity index using neural networks.
  • Compared iterations of a single-step model and independent forecasts for each month.
  • Implemented a single multi-step forecast for the entire prediction period.
  • Utilized a neural network model alongside theoretical solutions from a physical model.
  • Identified differences in accuracy among single-step and multi-step forecasting.
  • Demonstrated that the single multi-step forecast may provide better long-term predictions.
  • Found variations in performance based on the forecasting approach utilized.

Abstract

We compared three different approaches for forecasting a time series of the solar activity index: iterations of a single-step model, an independent single-step forecast for each subsequent month, and a single multi-step forecast for the entire period. In each approach we use a neural network model as the forecasting model with the aid of a theoretical series of solutions obtained from the physical model.

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Cite This Study

Kisielius et al. (2025) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/69c8c22cde0f0f753b39c67fhttps://doi.org/10.7868/s3034646025070218
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