Unravelling the spatial and temporal variability of natural disturbances in European forests

Abstract Despite disturbances intensifying across European forests, it is not well known how their baseline regimes and trends vary across regions and disturbance agents. Using a Landsat‐derived dataset of over 3.8 million fire, wind and bark beetle disturbance events (1985–2023), we applied Gaussian finite mixture models to characterise natural disturbance regimes by causal agent, based on disturbance size, severity and frequency. We then analysed their variability across 50‐km grid cells and biomes (boreal, temperate, Mediterranean), as well as their long‐term trends and transitions across three periods (1985–1997, 1998–2010, 2011–2023). Fire regimes exhibited a marked north–south latitudinal gradient: severe and rare fires occurred in boreal and temperate biomes, whereas moderate and large and frequent fires predominated in Mediterranean and temperate–Mediterranean transitional forests. For wind and bark beetle disturbances, we identified four distinct regimes: moderate disturbances predominated in boreal and temperate biomes; mild and rare disturbances occurred in Mediterranean and temperate–Mediterranean forests; and frequent and small , as well as severe and large disturbances predominated in Central Europe and the British Isles, respectively. Approximately 15% of all grid cells shifted to a different disturbance regime during the study period. Fire frequency and severity declined in temperate and Mediterranean forests between the first and second period (1985–1997 and 1998–2010). Wind and bark beetle disturbances decreased in size in boreal and temperate forests during the same period, followed by increases in disturbance severity in temperate forests between the second and third period (1998–2010 and 2011–2023). Synthesis and applications: The heterogeneity of natural disturbance patterns and high temporal variability across European Forest suggest the need of adopting context‐dependent management strategies tailored to both the dominant disturbance agent and local environmental conditions, particularly in the most vulnerable regions, such as the Iberian Peninsula—with large and frequent fires—and Central Europe—with increasing bark beetle outbreaks. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the journal’s blog .