The global geography of plant invasion risk under future climate and land-use changes

Abstract Biological invasions by plants pose a growing threat to biodiversity. Here we model potential current and future distributions of 9,701 naturalized alien plant species to project their potential spread by the end of the twenty-first century. Our analysis reveals that 33.9% of the global land surface is suitable for at least 10% of these species, identifying key hotspots for invasion. Under future climate and land-use scenarios, these hotspots are projected to expand moderately to 37.7% and 36.6% of land surface under mild and severe changes, respectively. However, this moderate absolute increase conceals substantial spatial shifts in hotspot locations, with expansion into currently cooler regions and contraction in hotter, drier areas. Additionally, we observe substantial species turnover within regional naturalized plant pools, indicating not only increases in plant invasion risk, but also shifts in the composition of the alien plant species pools. Our models predict regionally divergent responses of naturalized plant richness and species pool composition to climate and land-use changes.