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March 31, 20260 citationsOpen Access

Decision Physics: A Mathematical Framework for Irreversible Intelligent Systems

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YKYasin Kalafatoglu

Key Points

  • To establish a mathematical framework for decision-making in environments with irreversibility and uncertainty.
  • Developed a multidimensional risk formulation incorporating probability, impact, irreversibility, time, and uncertainty.
  • Derived a dynamic system to govern risk evolution using differential equations.
  • Executed Monte Carlo simulations to verify framework applications in finance and energy systems.
  • Incorporating irreversibility significantly enhances decision stability.
  • The framework reduces systemic risk in tested applications.
  • Provides a structured decision governance infrastructure for AI systems, promoting reproducibility and auditability.

Abstract

This paper introduces Decision Physics, a novel theoretical framework that models decisions as irreversible state transitions under uncertainty. While modern artificial intelligence systems excel in prediction and optimization, they lack a formal structure for decision-making in environments characterized by risk, time dependency, and irreversibility. We propose a multidimensional risk formulation incorporating probability, impact, irreversibility, time, and uncertainty, and derive a dynamic system governing risk evolution. The framework is supported by axiomatic foundations, differential equations, and theoretical proofs establishing stability and collapse conditions. Through Monte Carlo simulations and domain-specific applications in finance and energy systems, we demonstrate that incorporating irreversibility significantly improves decision stability and reduces systemic risk. The proposed framework shifts artificial intelligence from predictive modeling toward decision-governance infrastructure, enabling reproducibility, auditability, and scientifically grounded decision-making. This work contributes to decision science, artificial intelligence, and risk theory by introducing a unified mathematical approach to decision systems operating under uncertainty.

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Cite This Study

Yasin Kalafatoglu (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/69cb650ee6a8c024954b914ehttps://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.19318677
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