This study investigates the underlying drivers of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Türkiye from 2000 to 2020 through a sectorally aggregated Structural Decomposition Analysis (SDA) based on input-output (IO) tables. By integrating comprehensive GHG emissions data and harmonized IO accounts, the analysis disentangles the respective roles of technological progress, structural change, and final demand in shaping Türkiye’s emissions trajectory across agriculture, mining, manufacturing, construction, transportation, services, and households. The findings reveal that manufacturing and households have consistently dominated the nation’s emissions profile, while the aggregate rise in GHGs is overwhelmingly attributable to final demand growth, especially during periods of rapid economic expansion. Technological improvements initially offset much of this increase, but their mitigating effect weakened over time, and in the most recent decade, emissions intensity began to rise once again. Structural (sectoral) change contributed only marginally throughout, underscoring the persistent inertia of Türkiye’s economic structure. The results highlight that effective decarbonization in Türkiye will require not only renewed investments in energy efficiency and clean technologies, but also more ambitious structural reforms and targeted interventions in both production and consumption patterns. These insights are directly relevant for policymakers seeking to balance sustained economic growth with climate commitments in emerging economies.
KAZIM İLHAN YARIKAN (Mon,) studied this question.
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