The Effects of Social Assistance on Poverty in Türkiye: Evidence from a Systematic Meta-Analysis of Empirical Studies (2000–2025)

This study provides a systematic meta-analytic assessment of the effects of social assistance programmes on poverty in Türkiye over the period 2000–2025, encompassing interventions implemented by multiple institutional actors within the Turkish welfare system. Eight quantitative studies meeting predefined inclusion criteria were identified across major academic databases, and their reported outcomes were standardised using Hedges’ g and log odds ratios. The findings were synthesised under a random-effects framework (REML) with Knapp–Hartung adjustment. The results indicate statistically significant poverty-reducing effects of social assistance programmes. In particular, targeted and conditional cash transfer programmes contribute to improvements in multidimensional welfare, especially through increased access to education and healthcare services among vulnerable groups. Cash assistance programmes directed at refugee populations also demonstrate strong effects in reducing extreme poverty and child labour. By contrast, the effects on income inequality appear more modest and context-dependent, largely shaped by transfer composition and the broader structure of the social protection system. The analysis further reveals substantial heterogeneity across studies, attributable to differences in programme design, targeting strategies, and contextual conditions. Given the relatively small number of included studies (k 10), the findings should be interpreted with caution despite the application of multiple robustness checks. Overall, the results suggest that the long-term effectiveness of social assistance programmes depends on the adequacy of benefit levels, the alignment of conditionality with service provision capacity, and the strength of data-driven governance supported by continuous monitoring and evaluation. Strengthening these dimensions can support a transition from short-term poverty alleviation to more durable improvements in equality of opportunity.