Multiple working hypotheses, strong inference, and the origins of the COVID-19 pandemic

Abstract The competing hypotheses on the origins of SARS-CoV-2 – the pathogen responsible for the COVID-19 pandemic – have been hotly debated in the scientific literature and popular media, especially with respect to the hypothesis that SARS-Cov-2 originated from an animal market versus the hypothesis that it originated from a laboratory leak. Since there has been little resolution of this issue, I argue for a general approach to resolve the plausibility of the competing hypotheses on the origins of the COVID-19 pandemic using the method of multiple working hypotheses and strong inference. This approach has been formalized over time to objectively and quantitatively deal with issues such as the opposing and competing hypotheses about COVID-19 origins. This approach would best be formalized through professional scientific societies to provide objective rigor and credibility to the process.