Thermal Intelligence for Hydro-Generators: Data-Driven Prediction of Stator Winding Temperature Under Real Operating Conditions

Hydropower remains one of the primary sources of power generation. It can be operated as either a base-load or peak-load plant due to its rapid, easy start-up and stop-down capability. However, power plants, old or new, need to be operated and maintained optimally to meet energy demand and maximise economic returns. While the older plants without digital controls such as the Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) system are unable to leverage the evolving technology including big data and Artificial Intelligence (AI), the newer plants or plants that already have some form of data acquisition system have the advantage of leveraging the newer platforms for efficient operation, monitoring and fault diagnosis. Thus, an Artificial Neural Network (ANN), a machine learning (ML) algorithm, was chosen for this case study to predict the generator’s operational stator temperature by selecting six parameters that could potentially affect it. Real data from the 336 MW Chhukha Hydropower Plant (CHP) in Bhutan were used to train the ANN. The prediction of temperature using an ANN in MATLAB® yielded an R2 (correlation coefficient) of 96.8%, which is impressive but can be further improved through various optimisation and tuning methods with increased data volume and complexity. The performance of ANN prediction was validated against other regression models, and the ANN was found to outperform them. This demonstrated its capability to predict and detect generator temperature faults before failures, thereby enhancing hydropower operation and maintenance (O&M) efficiency. The model’s interpretation was also done through Shapley Additive ExPlanations (SHAP).