Guaranteed Income as Targeted Welfare? Mechanisms and Conditions Linking Income Security, Health, and Crime for Patients in Forensic Psychiatry

In welfare states, there is considerable interest in the potential of guaranteed income (GI) experiments to improve the well-being of (marginalised) populations. However, understanding the mechanisms by which GI affects interrelationships between financial well-being, mental health, and crime and under which conditions is limited. This paper addresses these gaps by analysing a Dutch GI experiment involving fourteen forensic psychiatric clients, employing a mixed-methods approach. Using realistic evaluation principles, the study identifies four key mechanisms that contributed to a decrease in recidivism risk: meeting basic needs; alleviating financial scarcity and its psychological repercussions; strengthening social connections; and facilitating social withdrawal. Additionally, contextual factors such as social networks, identity, and life events are explored to explain variations among participants over time. Our analysis illuminates the intricate relationships among livelihood security, health care, and criminal behaviour while exploring the potential for targeted welfare interventions to enhance both individual health outcomes and public safety.