• Socio-economic implications of India’s transitions away from coal are assessed under multiple scenarios • Accelerating coal retirement is not desirable as it imposes a significant cost burden for India in the near and medium term • A timeline of coal phase-out in the power sector in 2050 balances development goals and mitigation ambition • The net zero timeline provides a window for restructuring the sector, building economic resilience, and providing a supportive job structure policy. India has announced the goal of reaching net-zero emissions by 2070. Decarbonising India’s power sector has the potential to contribute substantially to its climate goals. About 50% of India’s total CO2 emissions come from its coal power plants, which form 71% of the power supply. The increasing economic activity, urbanisation, industrialisation, and electrification of transportation and industry demand an increase in the power supply. Hence, phasing out coal to meet climate goals has implications for the energy demand, access, and energy security needs of the country. The transition away from coal requires a deeper understanding of its socio-economic implications. Balancing the synergies across development and climate outcomes requires explicit considerations of justice. This paper aims to determine a coal phase-out timeline within the framework of India's just transition to net zero. Three scenarios are assessed using the AIM/Enduse energy model. The Reference scenario (REF) represents India's current energy policies; the Net Zero India scenario (NZI) aligns with India’s Net Zero 2070 commitment; and the Accelerated scenario (ACC) aligns with the global climate ambition to achieve Net Zero emissions by 2050. The assessment of the three scenarios based on techno-economic cost, socio-economic cost (loss of employment and revenue), and co-benefits of the transition (reduction in emissions and air pollution) shows that the peak of coal demand by 2040 will meet energy demand while focusing on achieving energy access and power supply security. This timeline allows for restructuring the sector, building economic resilience, and providing a supportive job structure policy, while achieving a considerable reduction in local air pollution.
Dhandhania et al. (Wed,) studied this question.