The geopolitical competition between China and India for securing energy supplies in Central Asia

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to analyze the geopolitical competition between China and India over securing energy supplies from Central Asia, and to assess the strategic significance of this rivalry within the broader context of regional and global power dynamics. By applying realist and regional security theories, the study seeks to understand how both countries’ energy needs shape their foreign policies, alliance strategies, and infrastructure investments. It also aims to highlight Central Asia’s evolving role as a critical energy hub and to explore how this competition influences regional stability, energy security, and the emerging multipolar international order. Design/methodology/approach This study adopts a qualitative analytical approach grounded in the theoretical frameworks of Realism and Regional Security Complex Theory. It utilizes the “Balance of Power” methodology developed by Buzan and Wæver to examine the strategic behaviors of China and India in Central Asia. The research relies on secondary data sources, including policy documents, international energy reports, and academic literature, to assess each country’s energy strategies, foreign policy alignments, and regional engagements. Through comparative analysis, the study identifies patterns of competition and cooperation, providing a comprehensive understanding of how energy security drives geopolitical dynamics in Central Asia. Findings The study finds that energy security is a central driver of China and India’s foreign policies toward Central Asia. China has established dominance through infrastructure investments, pipeline networks, and economic integration, while India pursues a balancing strategy via political partnerships and transport corridors. Both countries view Central Asia not only as an energy source but also as a strategic buffer zone. Their competition reshapes regional alliances and heightens security tensions, particularly around border disputes and maritime routes. However, institutional engagements offer potential pathways for cooperation, suggesting that managed rivalry could stabilize the region and enhance mutual energy security. Research limitations/implications This study is limited by its reliance on secondary data and publicly available sources, which may not capture the most recent or classified developments in China and India’s energy diplomacy. Additionally, the dynamic nature of regional politics and shifting global energy markets could alter strategic calculations after the period of analysis. Despite these limitations, the research provides valuable insights into the interplay between energy security and geopolitics. It highlights the need for further empirical studies and policy-oriented research on the evolving roles of regional institutions and the potential for cooperative frameworks to mitigate the risks of escalating Sino-Indian competition. Practical implications The study offers practical insights for policymakers and strategic planners in energy-importing and transit countries. Understanding the geopolitical motives behind China and India’s energy strategies enables Central Asian states to negotiate from stronger positions and diversify their partnerships. It also informs regional organizations and global powers seeking to maintain stability in a competitive environment. For India, the findings highlight the importance of overcoming geographic constraints through infrastructure diplomacy. For China, they stress the risks of overreliance on energy corridors. Overall, the study underscores the need for inclusive, multilateral energy governance to reduce tensions and foster long-term regional cooperation. Social implications The study underscores the broader social implications of the China-India energy rivalry in Central Asia, particularly its impact on regional development, employment, and stability. Strategic investments in infrastructure and energy projects can create economic opportunities and improve living standards in host countries. However, intensified competition may also exacerbate local inequalities, fuel political tensions, and provoke social unrest if not managed inclusively. Additionally, energy-driven foreign policies may overlook environmental and community concerns. The research highlights the need for socially responsible engagement and greater public participation in energy governance to ensure that geopolitical strategies translate into tangible benefits for local populations. Originality/value This paper offers original value by bridging energy security studies with geopolitical analysis of Sino-Indian competition in a region often overlooked in mainstream scholarship– Central Asia. It provides a nuanced, comparative assessment of how China and India deploy distinct strategic tools to secure energy, grounded in realist and regional security theories. The study enriches Arabic and global political economy literature by highlighting the centrality of energy in shaping foreign policy and regional influence. Its unique contribution lies in framing Central Asia not only as an energy source but as a pivotal arena in the emerging multipolar order, with global strategic consequences.