Modeling and Simulation of Whooping Cough Transmission in Japan: A SEIRS Approach with LSTM and Latin Hypercube Sampling-Based Parameter Estimation

Whooping cough has re-emerged as a significant global public health concern. Hence, an SEIRS model for whooping cough transmission in Japan is proposed to capture the disease dynamics because of a strong resurgence of the epidemic. The model is analyzed mathematically, establishing the non-negativity and boundedness of its solutions and investigating both the disease-free and endemic equilibria with their local and global stability. The model is fitted to actual infection data by estimating the time-varying transmission rates using a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network and calibrating vaccination and treatment rates via Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS). Sensitivity analysis identifies the key parameters for optimal control, and results indicate that simultaneously enhancing the vaccination rate most effectively mitigates the epidemic, as supported by cost-effectiveness analysis.